Impact of climate change, The Glaciers of North Receding to horrific extent, Melting Glaciers may cause water shortages in future

By: Ahsan Raza Jafri

Glaciers that feed the Indus River in Pakistan’s Karakoram Mountains are melting faster than previously thought. According to new field research the impact of climate change in Gilgit Baltistan take the horrific turn in last few years. 

In the next three to five years the northern regions of Pakistan particularly Gilgit Baltistan are expected to face an alarming increase in flooding and GLOF events due to rapidly accelerating glacial melt. Glaciers that feed the Indus River in the Karakoram Mountains are losing mass faster than previously estimated and the impact of climate change is becoming more severe each passing year. 

Major glaciers such as Siachen Biafo Shishper Baltoro Hopper Batura Hispar and Rimo are all under visible threat and their retreat is expected to contribute to major hydrological disruptions in the near future.

The Baltoro Glacier one of the longest outside the polar regions is already showing signs of significant destabilization. Local communities have reported unusual changes in ice flow and volume loss. Deforestation in these mountain valleys is also worsening the situation by removing natural barriers and increasing surface temperatures further accelerating glacial retreat.

Floods will likely hit this region so hard that the loss of lives livelihoods and critical infrastructure could become inevitable. GLOF incidents which have already begun to increase in frequency will likely become more severe and unpredictable within the next few years. Therefore proactive and immediate measures are necessary to mitigate future disasters and protect vulnerable communities.

Rising temperatures are causing snow to melt rapidly in the spring reducing the time for snow to turn into solid glacier ice. Monthly snowfall particularly in January has shown a marked decline since 2006.

These trends will likely continue weakening the long term water supply and increasing the risk of both floods and droughts. Carbon emissions from automobiles and continued deforestation are further contributing to the warming climate and destabilizing the local environment.

In response the federal government has planned the construction of the Diamer Basha and Bunji dams in Gilgit Baltistan to store water and generate electricity. While these projects may offer partial relief they will not be enough to counter the accelerating threat of GLOFs and extreme floods.

Without comprehensive climate adaptation strategies the people of northern Pakistan will remain at growing risk from the dangerous consequences of glacial melt and changing weather patterns in the coming years.